APB
Business Plan — APB South / Robbie's Marine of Key WestConfidential · Working Draft · July 2026
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Confidential — for principals, lenders & capital partners

The last working boatyard in Key West.
Put it back to work.

A plan to take over operations of Robbie's Marina on Stock Island — roughly 25 acres of deep-water working waterfront at the end of US-1 — and rebuild it into the lower Keys' full-service haul-out, refit, and storage yard under All Points Boats.

OperatorAll Points Boats · APB South
Property7281 Shrimp Rd, Stock Island, Key West FL
StructureLong-term operating lease
PreparedJuly 2026 · working draft
Draft for discussion — not an offering of securities. Figures marked "est." are planning estimates pending the August 10, 2026 site survey.

SECTION 01Executive summary

Robbie's Marina is roughly 25 acres of working waterfront on Stock Island — deep water, haul-out yard, seawall, shops, and open ground that does not exist anywhere else in Key West. It has been operated below its potential for years. All Points Boats intends to take over operations under a long-term lease and rebuild it into the only full-service boatyard in the lower Keys.

The thesis in four facts

  1. The supply of places to keep and service a boat is structurally short. Industry analysis puts available slips at roughly one for every three to four boats over 30 feet — before counting transients, seasonal traffic, and large yachts.
  2. Florida's refit and haul-out capacity is already full. Trade coverage describes an outright capacity crisis in the refit market, with yards expanding hauling capability specifically because demand exceeds it.
  3. The biggest capital in the world has confirmed the asset class. Blackstone Infrastructure bought Safe Harbor Marinas — 138 locations, the largest marina operator on earth — from Sun Communities for $5.65 billion, closing April 30, 2025. Safe Harbor has been buying superyacht yards specifically to add service capability. Suntex, backed by Centerbridge with a $1.2 billion acquisition fund, has rolled up 66 properties across 15 states.
  4. Key West is the sharpest version of that squeeze in the United States. Fixed land, dense vessel population, near-zero remaining industrial waterfront, and no ability to build more. Stock Island is the last of it.

The arc

Get operational fast on what already exists, then reinvest the cash flow into a facility no one in the Keys can compete with. Revenue starts in week two on the existing lift and yard. From there the property is taken in stages — clear the non-paying inventory and gate the property, repair the seawall and remove the sunken dry dock, build permanent shops, engineer a road and truck-offload facility for vessels arriving in the Keys by trailer, add fuel storage next to an existing island fuel chain, and step up to a heavy lift sized to the fleet that actually exists here — roughly 500 tons, not the biggest machine in the catalogue. Each stage is funded by the one before it, and none of them is required for the yard to be profitable. The full sequence is Section 11.

The core bet: the institutions are paying billions to own marina platforms and then bolting service capability onto them. We have the reverse and better position — a certified marine fabrication company with 29 years of operating history, taking over the last piece of working waterfront in a market with no competing yard, under a long-term lease that requires no land purchase. The expensive part is already built. What's missing is an operator.

How we will be different

Geography alone is not a strategy. As institutional capital consolidates the sector, yards are tightening — banning outside contractors, refusing to let owners work on their own boats, and burying fees in the invoice. We intend to run the opposite yard: vetted, not gatekept. Everyone who works here is registered and insured — the same bar any serious yard holds — but qualifying takes minutes through a self-service portal instead of days through a manager. Bring your own contractor. Work on your own vessel. Published rates, no hidden fees, one simple bill. And it runs lean by design: access is a PIN tied to your status and your stay, not a guard on payroll. The consolidators cannot match this, because their economics depend on capturing the service revenue we are choosing to open up — and ours do not. Section 04.1.

~25 acland + water, Stock Island
Day 11target first haul-out revenue
$1.5–2.0Mactivation capital (est.)
~$5.2Myear-3 revenue target (est.)

Financial figures are planning estimates built from published rates and industry benchmarks — see Sections 07–09 for the build and every assumption behind them.

SECTION 02The property

Stock Island is the working waterfront of Key West — the last industrially zoned marine land before US-1 ends. Everything west of it has been converted to tourism, residential, or resort use over the past three decades. The parcel at 7281 Shrimp Road sits on deep water with direct channel access and is one of the only sites in the lower Keys where a vessel can be hauled, blocked, stored, and worked at scale.

What is on the ground

AssetCondition / noteRole in the plan
~25 acres land & waterCongested, under-organizedHardstand, storage, vendor campus, staging
Deep-water seawall & basinServiceable; sections blocked by stored/derelict vesselsDockage revenue + lift approach
Travel lift & haul-out worksOn site; mechanical state unverifiedThe cash register — first thing recommissioned
Work buildings / shopsUsableService bays, covered work, vendor bays
Finger piersNeed clearing & repairRestored in-water inventory (Phase 2)
Sunken dry dockSubmerged in the basin — a salvage project, not a cleanup itemRemoval reopens the basin and deep-water frontage
Road & site accessUnimproved; no controlled entryGated access + the future truck offload corridor
Adjacency: Keys Energy generating stationSeven oil-fired units next door, supplied by an existing fuel chain to Stock IslandThe basis for a future fuel storage & marine fueling operation
The Robbie's nameDecades of recognition on the waterOperate under it — do not erase it

The honest condition report

The yard is congested with stored vessels — a significant share of which are not paying, or not paying enough to justify the ground they occupy. Several derelict barges and a sunken dry dock sit in the basin. The facility needs cleanup, organization, and process before it needs construction. That is precisely why the opportunity exists. The expensive, irreplaceable components — land, water depth, seawall, industrial zoning, channel access — are already in place and cannot be reproduced in Key West at any price. What is broken is operational, and operations are what a working shop does.

Verification gate. Vessel counts, lift mechanical condition, seawall and utility capacity, and hardstand square footage are confirmed on the ground at the August 10, 2026 site survey. Every figure in this plan that depends on those facts is marked as an estimate and will be replaced with measured numbers.

SECTION 03Market research & analysis

3.1 — The structural shortage of places to keep a boat

The marine industry builds roughly 240,000–250,000 boats a year in the United States. Slip inventory has not remotely kept pace: industry analysis puts available slips at approximately one for every three to four boats over 30 feet, and that ratio excludes transient traffic, seasonal migration, and large yachts. Dockage has become materially more expensive and harder to find across Florida, a trend accelerated by institutional buyers acquiring independent marinas and repricing them.

This is the rare supply-demand imbalance that does not self-correct. Building new marine industrial waterfront requires water depth, channel access, industrial zoning, and permits — a combination that regulators in Florida essentially stopped issuing. Existing capacity is converted away from working use, not toward it.

3.2 — Refit and haul-out capacity is already full

The service side is tighter than the storage side. Trade coverage of the superyacht refit market describes a capacity crisis, with Florida and Mediterranean yards operating at or near full capacity handling technical upgrades, compliance work, and interior refits. At least one Florida yard has acquired a neighboring facility purely to expand hauling capacity, taking its lift capability to 485 tons.

The practical result for a Key West boat owner: the yards that can take the work are hours away by water and booked. Every one of those trips is revenue leaving the lower Keys.

3.3 — Institutional capital has validated the asset class

This is the single most important market signal in this document, and it is not our opinion — it is the largest infrastructure transaction in the sector's history.

TransactionDetailWhat it proves
Blackstone Infrastructure ← Safe Harbor Marinas$5.65 billion, closed April 30, 2025; acquired from Sun Communities; 138 locations, world's largest marina operatorMarina platforms are now institutional infrastructure, priced accordingly
Safe Harbor's acquisition patternBuying superyacht yards and service operations to vertically integrateThe scarce, valuable piece is service capability — exactly what APB brings
Suntex / Centerbridge$1.2B JV acquisition fund; 26 transactions across 66 properties in 15 states; merged with Windward Marina Group March 2026Consolidation is active and accelerating; independents are being absorbed

The read-through is direct. Sophisticated capital is paying record prices for marina platforms and then spending more to add the ability to haul and repair boats. We are proposing to assemble the same combination — working waterfront plus certified service capability — in the one Florida market where no competitor can follow, and to do it under a lease rather than a nine-figure acquisition.

3.4 — Marina economics, benchmarked

Published industry benchmarks give us a defensible frame for what this asset should produce once it is running properly:

MetricBenchmark rangeWhere APB South lands
Premium coastal slip rate$300–700 /ft/yrKey West market comps ≈ $600–650/ft/yr
Premium coastal occupancy90–95%Underwritten well below at 70–85%
Total revenue per slip$5,000–15,000+ /yrTarget upper band + service revenue on top
Slip revenue gross margin~70%Consistent with our opex build
Marina cap rate6–10% (6–7% premium coastal w/ waitlist)Relevant to eventual valuation, not year-1 ops
EBITDA multiple8–14× (2026 market)The value-creation math in Section 09

3.5 — Key West demand drivers

Resident and transient vessel density. The lower Keys carry a dense population of sportfish, charter, sail, trawler, and commercial vessels, plus year-round transient traffic funneling through Key West. Monroe County's Boating Improvement Fund — generated from recreational vessel registration fees alone — runs roughly $650,000 annually, and the county maintains over 550 aids to navigation across 22 regulatory zones. This is an intensely boated county.

Storm cycles. Every named storm produces a haul-out scramble. Yard space in the Keys sells out within hours of a forecast. A 25-acre yard with a working lift is storm infrastructure: haul-out revenue going in, a repair backlog for months coming out. Insurance carriers increasingly expect a documented haul-out plan — we intend to become that plan for the lower Keys.

Government and commercial fleets. NAS Key West and Coast Guard operations, the Stock Island commercial fishing fleet, ferries, dive operators, and pilot boats all need local service capability that currently does not exist at scale.

The luxury build-out next door. Stock Island's hospitality upgrade is accelerating — Stock Island Marina Village operates 220 slips for vessels to 300 feet, and the former Ocean's Edge reopened as the Hilton Key West Resort & Marina on July 1, 2026 with 175 rooms across 20 acres and 111 wet slips for vessels to 140 feet. These are dockage and hospitality businesses. They generate concentrated service demand within a mile of our gate and have no yard to satisfy it.

Market conclusion: demand is dense, growing, and geographically trapped. Supply is fixed and shrinking. The only full-service yard site left in Key West is the one we are proposing to operate.

SECTION 04Competitive landscape

FacilityWhat they areWhat they are notOur relationship
Stock Island Marina VillageLargest deep-water marina in the Keys — 220 slips, vessels to 300', floating concrete docks, fuel, pump-outNot a boatyard. No haul-out, no refit capabilityCustomer source. Their vessels need a yard
Hilton Key West Resort & Marina175-room resort, 20 acres, 111 slips to 140' (opened July 2026)Hospitality operation, not marine serviceCustomer source + proof of area investment
Safe Harbor networkFull-service yards with real capability, institutional backingHours away by water from Key WestDistance is our moat. Their rate cards set the ceiling
Marathon-area yardsNearest working haul-out capacity up the Keys~50 miles away, capacity-constrainedOverflow partner and pricing comp
Mobile mechanics / diversIn-water service around Key West harborCannot haul, block, or weld to classVendors on our campus, not competitors
Position: the only full-service haul-out and repair yard in Key West proper, carrying certified fabrication capability no local shop can match, situated beside luxury marinas that manufacture service demand and cannot serve it.

4.1 — The open yard: our actual competitive strategy

Geography is a moat, but geography can be bought. The durable differentiator is how we choose to operate — and we intend to run the opposite of the model the rest of the industry is converging on.

What the industry is doing

As capital consolidates the sector, yards are closing down. Published boatyard rules routinely state that "all contractors' work is strictly prohibited without prior management's approval," that owners must be pre-approved before touching their own vessel, and that any outside contractor must carry insurance "equal to twice the value of the vessel" plus $1M liability before being allowed near a boat. Industry press states it plainly: "more yards are now saying no to doing it yourself." Owners who still want to work on their own boat are told they may need to make "a few phone calls to find one" that permits it.

Layered on top is the fee structure every boat owner complains about — lay-day minimums, environmental surcharges, disposal fees, power hookups, gate charges, administrative percentages — disclosed at the bottom of an invoice rather than at the top of a conversation.

What we will do instead — vetted, not gatekept

This is not an open gate. Everyone who works on this property is registered, insured, and running through our system — the same standard any serious yard holds. The difference is friction. Other yards use those requirements as a gate to keep outside labor out; we use them as a form to fill in, and then get out of the way.

The industry standardAPB South
Outside contractors prohibited, or admitted only by management approvalBring your own contractor — once they're registered and insured. Same bar, no gatekeeping
Insurance paperwork submitted by email, approved manually, days of delaySelf-service portal. Upload your certificate, get verified, get a PIN, get to work
Owners barred from working on their own vesselWork on your own boat. DIY areas stay, and we advertise them
Service revenue captured by mandateEarned by capability. We win the work we're genuinely best at
Fees discovered on the invoicePublished rate card. What you see is the price
Multiple bills from multiple tradesOne simple invoice. Vendors submit through the portal; the customer gets one bill

The operating model that makes it work: lean by design

The open-but-controlled yard is only affordable if the control costs almost nothing to run. That is a deliberate design decision, not a cost cut:

The strategic point: the portal is not back-office software, it is the competitive advantage. Our position — easier to work at than any yard in Florida, while still fully insured and documented — is only deliverable if the qualifying process is automated. Which makes the vendor portal a day-one build, not a later refinement.

Why this is a strategy and not just goodwill. Three reasons it holds up commercially:

  1. The consolidators structurally cannot copy it. Their model is built on capturing service revenue per vessel. Opening the yard to outside labor cuts directly against the economics that justified the acquisition price. We can afford to be open precisely because we are not carrying a nine-figure basis that has to be serviced.
  2. It fills the yard, and the yard is what we sell. Every vessel on the property pays haul, lay-days, storage, dockage, and wash regardless of who turns the wrench. Open access maximizes the number of boats on the ground — and ground is the asset. A restrictive policy that turns away a boat costs us the storage revenue to protect service revenue we might not have won anyway.
  3. APB does not need protection. A shop with ABS, Lloyd's, and RINA certified procedures does not need a rule preventing customers from hiring someone else. We market the certified structural, fabrication, and refit work that no independent on this island can legally perform, and we let everything else compete honestly.
The message: "We're not like the other yards. We don't tell you who can touch your boat, or stop you from working on it yourself. Get your contractor insured and registered — it takes minutes, online — and go to work. No hidden fees. One simple bill. Here's the rate card; that's the price."
The tension this creates, stated honestly. The operating lease requires all facility revenue to be invoiced through APB. That has to be implemented as billing simplicity, not access restriction — one clean invoice covering haul, storage, and every trade that worked on the vessel, rather than a mechanism for excluding competitors. It also means the vendor participation fee must be published and flat, not a percentage quietly priced into a third party's labor rate — a buried percentage is a hidden fee wearing a different hat, and it would break the promise on the first invoice. Getting this structure right is a day-one design decision, not a later refinement.

SECTION 05The operator — All Points Boats

APB has operated a fabrication and refit shop in Fort Lauderdale since 1997. This is not a management company or a broker — it is a working shop with its own welders, fabricators, and project managers, and it is the reason this plan is credible.

SECTION 06Operating structure

The structure under negotiation is a long-term maritime operating lease and facility management agreement — not a real estate purchase. This is the single most capital-efficient feature of the deal.

TermPosition
OperatorAPB South as exclusive operator — dockage, haul-out, yard, service, vendors, tenants, billing, marketing
OwnershipLandlord retains the real estate and funds permanent infrastructure (seawalls, docks, buildings, utility mains)
Term30-year initial term with four 10-year renewal options held by APB
Base rentNominal; landlord is compensated through a negotiated share of net operating profit
Billing controlAll revenue on the property invoiced through APB — implemented as one simple bill per vessel, not as a restriction on who may work (see 4.1); no cash jobs, no undocumented work; weekly reporting to principals
Cost recoveryAPB self-performed labor, equipment, and improvements accrue to a recoverable capital account, recovered ahead of profit splits
Vendors & tenantsLocal trades join an open registered vendor program — insured and documented, then free to work. Participation fee published and flat, never a buried percentage
ProtectionsAssignment rights, lender cure rights, right of first offer/refusal on sale

Why this structure works for every party. The landlord keeps an appreciating asset and gains a professional operator with capital at risk. APB obtains long-term operating control without buying land at Key West prices. Capital partners fund a business whose heavy assets are already built and whose downside is an equipment-and-payroll number rather than a real estate basis. Every party's incentive resolves to the same line: net operating profit.

Status. The operating agreement is drafted and in counsel review. It is not signed. Execution of this plan is contingent on that document and on the diligence gates it contains.

SECTION 07Revenue model & the 2026 rate card

Two reference points sit behind every figure in this section, and neither is a guess. The first is the yard's own published price list — proof of what this address already collects. The second is a major Fort Lauderdale yard's 2019 sheet, which supplies the pricing structure the current list is missing. Where those two disagree, the reason is given.

The inflation point, because it decides the whole card. US consumer prices rose 30.6% between 2019 and 2026 (CPI 255.7 → 334.0), and marine services ran ahead of the headline — shipyard labour, technician and survey rates alone moved 10–20% in 2022–24, parts 15–25%. A 2019 sheet charged at face value today is therefore about 23% cheaper in real money than that yard was in 2019. Carrying those figures forward is the conservative reading, not the aggressive one.

The Florida Keys are not Fort Lauderdale, and that cuts both ways. Arguing rates down: a thinner superyacht trade and a smaller average vessel. Arguing them up: every consumable and contractor arrives down US‑1; Monroe County's labour market is severe enough that the county is buying workforce housing at roughly $2,995 a month for a one-bedroom and rationing 657 building permits out to 2036; and Key West has a handful of working yards against Lauderdale's dozens. Scarcity and cost of operation both point upward. The card below holds the yard's proven numbers where they are already strong and adds structure where there is none.

What is structurally wrong with the current list

ProblemConsequenceFix in the 2026 card
Dockage is one flat rate for every length ($5/ft/day)A 40-footer subsidises a 130-footer. Flat rates always overprice the bottom and underprice the topSix length classes, holding $5 at the bottom and escalating above it
No daily lay-day rate under 70 feetThe largest part of the fleet can only be sold monthly storage — the cheapest product on the sheetLay days banded from 0 feet up
Storage and active work are the same productA boat being worked on pays long-term storage rates for ground it is occupying intensivelySplit: lay days while under work, storage only when idle
No covered product at any priceThe highest rate on any comparable sheet is simply absentPriced and held for Stage 2 (Section 11)
The single largest margin item on the property, and it needs no capital. The current list charges $20–30 per foot per month for dry storage. A vessel actively being worked on occupies the same ground far more intensively, and every comparable yard prices that as a daily product. At the lay-day rates below, a 60-foot boat under work bills $4.00/ft/day ≈ $120/ft/month against $30/ft/month as storage. Splitting the two products is a four-fold difference on ground the yard already owns.

1 · Haul, block & launch

Held at the yard's published rates. These are current, they are being paid at this address, and the band structure is sound — no case for changing them on day one.

LengthPer footLengthPer foot
Up to 49'$1570' – 79'$30
50' – 60'$2080' – 84'$40
61' – 69'$2585' and over$50

Includes blocking and stands. Beams over 15' add $3/ft. Emergency haul-out from $450 in addition to the regular charge. Half haul (inspection, running gear): $10–30/ft by the same bands, covering the first two hours, $300/hour thereafter. Payable the day of haul.

The 85-ton limit is a rate-card fact, not just an equipment one. The "85 and over" band is at or past what the existing lift can physically take — roughly 85 feet by displacement, and less for a heavy hull. Until the larger lift arrives (Section 11, Stage 5) anything in that band is a crane operation quoted on survey, not a listed haul. The card should not sell what the yard cannot lift.

2 · Dockage — vessels in the water

The one genuinely new structure. The yard's flat $5/ft/day is held as the floor — it is already above the Lauderdale sheet carried forward, which is useful evidence that this market bears more than that one for a berth. Above 80 feet the card escalates, because that is where scarcity is real and where a flat rate leaves the most on the table.

ClassAPB South 2026Multihull / beam 15'+Current listComparison yard, carried forward
50' and under$5.00$6.50$5.00$2.00
51' – 80'$5.50$7.25$5.00$2.50
81' – 100'$6.00$7.75$5.00$3.50
101' – 125'$6.75$8.75$5.00$4.50
126' – 149'$7.50$9.75$5.00$6.25
150' and up$8.50$11.00$5.00$7.25

Per foot per day. Multihull and beam-over-15' column is +30%, following the existing wide-beam convention on haul and storage. Dockage is unaffected by the lift limit — a 150-foot vessel can lie alongside without ever being hauled, which is why these bands run higher than the haul bands.

3 · Lay days — vessels on the hard, under work

Banded from zero, which the current list does not do at all below 70 feet. At 51–80 feet the rate lands on $4.00 — the same figure the yard already charges above 70 feet, and the same figure the comparison sheet reaches when carried forward. Two independent references agreeing on a number is the strongest evidence in this section.

ClassAPB South 2026MultihullCurrent listComparison yard, carried forward
50' and under$2.50$3.75monthly only$2.50
51' – 80'$4.00$6.00$4.00 (70'+)$4.00
81' – 100'$5.25$7.75$4.00$5.25
101' – 125'$6.50$9.75$6.50
126' and up$7.75$11.50$7.75

Per foot per day, charged from haul to launch. Both the first and last day count, and a vessel not clear of the yard by noon on its departure day is charged the following day — the same hotel clock the billing system runs on. The two largest classes require the Stage 5 lift or a crane operation.

4 · Storage — vessels not under work

A genuine long-term product, deliberately kept cheap and deliberately separated from lay days. It buys ground utilisation in the quiet months without cannibalising the daily rate.

ProductRateTerms
Dry storage$35 /ft/moVessel not under active work. Central or south yard, subject to space
Long-term dry storage$25 /ft/moSix-month minimum on contract; back yard positions only
Multihull / beam over 15'+10%Follows the existing convention
The rule that makes the split work. Storage is for a vessel that is idle. The moment work starts — the owner's, a vendor's or ours — it moves to the lay-day rate. Without that rule written into the storage agreement, every customer books storage and works on the boat anyway, and the largest margin gain in this plan quietly disappears.

5 · Utilities — one bundled charge, per connection, per day

Florida prohibits marking up resold electricity, so power is not metered and not resold. It is a service charge per connection per day that bundles electricity, water, trash collection, security and wifi — the same structure the comparison yard publishes, which confirms it as standard practice rather than something invented here.

ConnectionAPB South 2026Comparison yard, carried forward
30 amp / 240 V single phase$5.00$3.25
50 amp / 240 V single phase$12.00$9.75
100 amp / 240 V single phase$65.00$58.75
100 amp / 208 V three phase$110.00$98.00
100 amp / 480 V three phase$145.00$130.50
No power connection taken$0.15 – $0.40 /ft/day$0.10 – $0.30 /ft/day

Per connection per day. The no-power tier scales by length (0–50', 51–80', 81'+) and still applies — trash, security and wifi are consumed whether or not a cord is plugged in. Rates carry a premium over the carried-forward comparison because Keys power and haulage costs are higher.

A correction worth stating plainly, because it was nearly a $100-a-day mistake. An early working assumption put a 50-amp cord at $100/day. On the comparison sheet, $100/day is the 100 amp / 480 volt three-phase connection — the largest service offered. A 50-amp cord there is $7.50/day. Charging $100 for 50 amps would have been roughly 13× the market and the first line every customer disputed. The card above sets 50 amps at $12, above the carried-forward figure and defensible on inspection.

6 · Attached services

ServiceRateNote
Pressure wash$4 /ft$5/ft multihull or beam over 15'; extra for heavy fouling. Attaches to nearly every haul
Trailer offload / load$25 /ftAlready a published line. The first billable touch of the truck-down trade — see Section 11, Stage 3
Mast up or down$500 each waySail fleet
Forklift / lull$100 per ½ hr
Bottom paint — application$22 /ftIn-house only. Material billed separately at retail. See the carve-out in Section 06
Ladders & scaffoldingpass-throughThird-party supplied so the liability stays with the supplier
Environmental fee$45 per haulAttaches automatically. See below

7 · Environmental — a department that pays for itself

Waste is documented and charged to the vessel rather than absorbed. This is a compliance requirement before it is a revenue line: the operator is required to control what enters a used-oil container, which is why the cage is locked and monitored and why disposal is a booked transaction rather than a bin in the corner.

ItemRateItemRate
Used oil$3.50 /galBilge & oily water$5.00 /gal
Oil filters$6.00 eachSolvent / paint waste$9.00 /gal
Batteries$18.00 eachAntifreeze / coolant$4.00 /gal
Spill responsefrom $850Environmental fee$45 per haul

Volume control is also a financial control: one contaminated drum can reclassify a month's waste as hazardous and push the yard into a higher generator tier under FAC 62-730.

8 · Priced, but not yet sellable

Two products sit on every comparable sheet and on none of this property's. They are priced here so the capital case in Section 11 has a revenue number attached rather than an aspiration.

ProductIndicative rateRequires
Covered work shed$9.25 /ft/dayStage 2 shop build. The highest per-foot rate on any comparable card, and the answer to painting in Keys weather
Covered dockage$7.75 /ft/dayStage 2 dock build

Both figures are the comparison yard's 2019 rates carried forward at CPI. They are order-of-magnitude, to be re-quoted against build cost before either is sold.

9 · Stress test — what if the comparison yard raised every year?

The card above carries the 2019 sheet forward at consumer inflation. That is the conservative assumption. A working yard in a constrained coastal market is more likely to have raised its own list annually, so the table below runs the harder case: 10% a year, compounded, for seven years — which nearly doubles the sheet (×1.95) and is roughly two and a half times the rate of inflation over the period.

Class2019 sheetAt 10%/yr → 2026APB South cardWe sit
Dockage
50' and under$1.50$2.92$5.00+71%
51' – 80'$2.00$3.90$5.50+41%
81' – 100'$2.75$5.36$6.00+12%
101' – 125'$3.50$6.82$6.75−1%
126' – 149'$4.75$9.26$7.50−19%
150' and up$5.50$10.72$8.50−21%
Lay days
50' and under$2.00$3.90$2.50−36%
51' – 80'$3.00$5.85$4.00−32%
81' – 100'$4.00$7.79$5.25−33%
101' – 125'$5.00$9.74$6.50−33%
126' and up$6.00$11.69$7.75−34%
The stress test says something the averages hide: the two products are in completely different positions. Against a 10%-a-year escalation our dockage averages +14%, because the flat $5 floor this property already collects is genuinely strong for small and mid-size boats. Our lay days average −33%, and the gap is close to identical in every class.

Running it backwards — what the card actually implies

The more useful test is the inverse. Rather than asking what a 10% escalation would produce, ask what annual rise our own card implies against the 2019 sheet:

ClassDockage — implied /yrLay days — implied /yr
50' and under18.8%3.2%
51' – 80'15.5%4.2%
81' – 100'11.8%4.0%
101' – 125'9.8%3.8%
126' and up6.4 – 6.7%3.7%
Consumer inflation over the same period: 3.9% a year
This corrects the conclusion above, and it matters. Our lay-day bands imply the comparison yard raised 3.2–4.2% a year — every single class within a point of inflation. Cross-checked against direct operator knowledge of that yard's current pricing, our card reads as close to their sheet today. The lay-day rates are therefore at market, not a third below it, and the “year-two pricing runway” the 10% scenario appeared to show does not exist. The 10%-a-year case should be read as an upper bound that the evidence does not support — useful for testing whether the card breaks under pressure, not as a forecast of recoverable upside.

Dockage tells the opposite story: the implied rise runs 6–19% a year, steepest at the smallest lengths. That is not an escalation, it is a restructuring. Our small-boat dockage is anchored to this property's own proven $5/ft/day — a Key West number, already being collected at this address — and not to a Fort Lauderdale sheet at all. The comparison yard supplies the shape of the dockage card; the local market supplies the level.

What the two readings together actually establish. Lay days are validated by an external sheet tracked forward at inflation. Dockage is validated by revenue this property already collects. Neither number rests on the other, and neither is extrapolated from a single source — which is the strongest position a rate card in a plan like this can be in. The remaining exposure is not that the rates are too high; it is whether the yard can deliver the turnaround that justifies charging lay days at all on boats currently paying monthly storage.

Sourcing, stated plainly. The 2019 sheet is documented. The comparison yard's current published rates are not in hand — the read that our card sits close to them is the direct professional knowledge of the operator who ran that marina — APB South's lead was Marina Manager at the comparison yard and administered the rate card in question. That is primary-source, but it is recollection rather than a document, and it is load-bearing for the lay-day conclusion above. Obtaining that yard's current published card is still the cheapest diligence available on this section — not because the read is doubtful, but because a lender will want the document rather than the recollection. 10%/yr compounded over seven years = ×1.949; CPI over the same period = ×1.306. The operating system carries this test live, so the assumption can be changed rather than argued about.

What this card is not. It is a published list, and a published list is a ceiling with a discount policy behind it — contract tenants, fleet operators and long-stay refits will all be written below it, which is why the operating system carries a per-berth contract rate that overrides the card. It is also not a forecast: what the yard actually earns depends on occupancy and lift throughput, which are modelled separately in Section 08 and remain the binding constraint.

The six revenue streams, in order of activation

  1. Haul-out & launch — day 11 target. The lift is the cash register and the demand generator for everything else.
  2. Dry storage & lay-days — same day. Every hauled vessel starts a meter.
  3. Wash, bottom & environmental fees — attached automatically to every haul.
  4. Dockage — as seawall sections are cleared and returned to service.
  5. Service & fabrication labor — APB's core margin; certified work billed at yard rates.
  6. Vendor & tenant revenue share — vetted trades operating on campus, billed through the platform.

The streams reinforce each other, which is the point of a full-service yard: a haul-out produces storage days, storage produces service work, service work produces vendor billings, and a clean organized yard produces dockage demand. A dockage-only marina captures one of the six.

Streams added by the build-out (Section 11)

Three further lines are unlocked by capital improvements rather than by cleanup, and they are what turn a good yard into a facility with no regional equivalent:

StreamUnlocked byWhy it matters
7. Marine fuelFuel storage & dispensingHigh-volume, high-frequency revenue that also drives dockage and service traffic. The existing Stock Island fuel supply chain serving the generating station makes delivery logistics viable here in a way they are not elsewhere in the Keys
8. Truck offload & launchRoad, turning area, lift interfaceVessels arrive in the Keys by truck and there is no proper facility to receive them. Becoming the offload point captures the vessel at the moment it enters the market — and every service that follows
9. Heavy-vessel haul-out~500-ton lift capabilityOpens vessels to roughly 190 ft — and, just as importantly, the short heavy commercial fleet (shrimpers, tugs, workboats) that no light-duty lift can take — at the top of the rate card, in a market where no competitor can serve them

SECTION 08Financial projections

What follows is a bottom-up build from the published rates above, deliberately underwritten below benchmark occupancy. These are planning estimates, not forecasts, and every driver is stated so it can be challenged line by line.

8.1 — Revenue build

StreamYear 1 driver (ramp)Year 1Year 3 driver (stabilized)Year 3
Haul-out & launch350 hauls · 45' avg · $18/ft$284,000600 hauls · 48' avg · $20/ft$576,000
Dry storage30 vessels · 42' · $25/ft/mo$378,00055 vessels · 44' · $27/ft/mo$784,000
Dockage840 occupied ft · $50/ft/mo$504,0001,700 occupied ft · $52/ft/mo$1,061,000
Service & fabricationPartial crew, ramping$600,000Full certified crew$2,200,000
Wash & environmental350 hauls · $250 avg$88,000600 hauls · $300 avg$180,000
Vendor / tenant shareFirst bays occupied$60,000Campus filled$350,000
Total revenue≈ $1.91M≈ $5.15M

8.2 — Operating expense build

CategoryYear 1Year 3Note
Labor — yard crew, lift operator, admin$700,000$1,800,000Largest line; scales with service revenue
Materials & subcontractors$200,000$700,000Direct cost against service work
Insurance$150,000$250,000Marine GL, ship repairers, workers' comp
Utilities, fuel & maintenance$180,000$350,000Lift service, power, water, equipment
G&A, software, marketing$120,000$250,000Systems already built
Environmental & compliance$80,000$150,000Waste, washdown, permits
Total operating expense≈ $1.43M≈ $3.50M

8.3 — Result

LineYear 1Year 3
Revenue$1,914,000$5,151,000
Operating expense($1,430,000)($3,500,000)
EBITDA (before landlord profit share)≈ $484,000≈ $1,651,000
EBITDA margin25%32%

A 32% stabilized margin sits within the normal band for a well-run marina and yard operation and is consistent with the ~70% gross margin benchmark on slip revenue once labor-heavy service work is blended in.

What these numbers are and are not. They are a defensible frame built from published rates and public benchmarks, intended to be argued with. They are not a forecast, they do not yet reflect the landlord profit split (a negotiated percentage of net operating profit), and they assume the lift returns to service and legal clearance proceeds on the derelicts. The August 10 survey converts the drivers — vessel counts, usable linear feet, hardstand square footage, lift condition — from estimate to measurement.

8.4 — Why the value creation is asymmetric

At a stabilized EBITDA of roughly $1.65 million and the 2026 market range of 8–14× for marina assets, the operating business supports an enterprise value in the range of $13–23 million, created on an activation budget of under $2 million and no land purchase. Even at the conservative 3–5× multiple some practitioners apply to smaller independents, the range is $5–8 million. The asymmetry comes from a single structural fact: we are buying operations, not waterfront. The waterfront — the part that costs tens of millions and cannot be replicated in Key West — is contributed by the landlord under a 30-year lease.

SECTION 09Capital requirement

This is an equipment, cleanup, and payroll number — not a construction number. Nothing in the activation budget builds permanent infrastructure, which remains the landlord's obligation under the lease.

Use of fundsEstimateNote
Travel lift recommissioning & certification$150,000–350,000Range pending inspection — the single largest unknown
Blocking, stands, cribbing$120,000Directly gates how many boats can be on the hard
Heavy equipment (forklift, trailer)$180,000Used market; rental fallback priced
Yard cleanup, dumpsters, scrap removal$150,000Excludes derelict salvage (legal-gated, Phase 2)
Wash rack & interim containment$85,000Environmental compliance gate on wash revenue
Shop tooling & welding equipment$140,000Extends APB certified capability to the yard
Insurance & permits (year one)$175,000Marine GL, ship repairers, licenses, lift cert
Systems & software$40,000Largely built — deployment and integration only
Working capital$450,000Payroll and materials ahead of collections
Contingency (~15%)$220,000
Total activation capital≈ $1.5–2.0M

Capital is staged against milestones rather than drawn at once: mobilization and lift inspection first, equipment on a proven lift second, crew scaling against booked demand third. If the lift inspection returns a materially worse result than expected, the plan pivots to a rental/mobile haul solution while the lift is rebuilt — the revenue sequence slips, the thesis does not break.

SECTION 10The 30 / 60 / 90-day plan

Detailed week-by-week execution lives in the 30-Day Activation Plan. This is the command view across the first quarter.

First 30 daysSwitch the yard onGOAL · FIRST REVENUE BY DAY 11
  • Days 1–3 · Mobilize. Authority and insurance confirmed. Every vessel on the property tagged move, clean-around, or legal-hold — and every one matched against whether it actually pays. Utilities and safety systems checked. Temporary offices sited.
  • Days 4–10 · Open the lane. Travel lift inspected, serviced, load-tested. Main seawall cleared of movable vessels and debris. Yard marked — lift lanes, blocking positions, staging grid.
  • Days 11–17 · Revenue on. First paid haul-outs. Storage billing begins. Wash and basic service live. Rate card published and bookings opened.
  • Days 18–30 · Organize. Yard reorganized into clean rows, entrance and customer intake made presentable, immovable vessels consolidated and screened, dockage opened on cleared seawall.

Exit condition: lift hauling on a schedule, storage and dockage billing, shop earning, yard presentable to a paying customer.

Days 31–60Stabilize and prove the modelGOAL · REPEATABLE WEEKLY CADENCE
  • Operating rhythm. Fixed weekly haul schedule, booking pipeline two to three weeks deep, weekly financial and operating reporting to principals running without exception.
  • Gate and coded access installed. Controlled entry goes in — the mechanism that makes insurance rules, vendor compliance, and billing enforceable rather than aspirational.
  • Non-paying inventory worked. Collection, contract termination, lien, or derelict process started on every vessel occupying ground without paying for it. Each one cleared is capacity returned at almost no cost.
  • Preferred vendor program launch. First vetted trades onboarded into shop bays under the registered vendor agreement — insured, documented, billing through the platform.
  • Legal track advances. Derelict and abandoned vessel process moves through FWC and Monroe County; owner notices issued; title research underway on every legal-hold vessel.
  • Environmental compliance. Permanent washdown and containment solution specified and permitted, replacing the interim rig.
  • Commercial outreach. Direct calls on Stock Island Marina Village, the Hilton marina, charter and commercial fleets, and the pilot boat operation.

Exit condition: revenue is recurring rather than opportunistic, and the first month's numbers can be compared against this plan.

Days 61–90Scale and open Phase 2GOAL · SECOND ZONE EARNING
  • Derelict salvage begins. With legal clearance obtained, the first barges and the sunken vessel are removed by a licensed salvor — reopening the basin and finger piers.
  • Dockage inventory expands. Cleared finger piers return to service as billable in-water dockage.
  • Service backlog builds. Certified fabrication and repair work sells forward; APB Fort Lauderdale begins routing overflow work south.
  • Storm readiness. Hurricane haul-out plan published and sold as a contracted product ahead of peak season.
  • Numbers reconciled. Ninety-day actuals replace estimates throughout this document; the year-1 model is re-underwritten on measured data.

Exit condition: two zones earning, salvage underway, and a financial model built on real numbers rather than benchmarks.

SECTION 11Years 1–10 — the build-out

The governing principle is sequence: get operational fast on what already exists, then reinvest the cash flow into becoming a facility no one in the Keys can compete with. Nothing in the later stages is required for the yard to make money. Each stage is funded by the one before it.

Stage 1 · Months 1–6 · Control the property

Clear it, gate it, and put every dollar through one system

  • Clear the non-paying inventory. A meaningful share of the yard is occupied by vessels that do not pay, pay far under market, or have simply been left. Each is worked under the correct process — collection, contract termination, lien, or the state derelict-vessel procedure — and the ground it sits on is returned to revenue. This is the single fastest source of capacity in the plan and it costs almost nothing.
  • Gate and coded access — no guard. A controlled entrance with a code box goes in early, issuing a PIN tied to each person's status and length of stay (customer, vendor, tenant, contractor), expiring automatically with the work. It is not primarily a security item: it is how you know who is on the property, tie access to a current insurance certificate, and make billing real — without putting a guard on payroll. The permission system replaces the headcount.
  • Temporary offices. Modular/container offices stood up immediately for customer intake, dispatch, and admin — so the operation runs professionally from month one instead of waiting on permanent construction.
  • Preferred vendor list established. The local trades are vetted, insured, documented, and admitted to a registered program. Good tradesmen are an asset of the yard, not a liability at the gate.
  • All billing through APB. Every haul, lay-day, dockage night, service hour, and vendor invoice flows through one system. No side work, no cash jobs, no undocumented arrangements. This is the difference between a yard and a business.
  • Yard organized and marked. Numbered blocking positions, lift lanes, staging grid, clean rows — capacity you can actually sell and schedule.
Stage 2 · Months 6–18 · Fix the water and build the shops

Reclaim the seawall, remove the dry dock, put up real buildings

  • Seawall cleanup and repair. Clearing and restoring the seawall converts the property's most valuable frontage back into billable deep-water dockage.
  • Remove the sunken dry dock. The largest single obstruction in the basin. This is a licensed salvage operation with environmental oversight, not a cleanup task — and removing it reopens water depth and berthing that is otherwise permanently lost.
  • Finger piers restored and returned to service as in-water inventory.
  • Permanent shops built. Purpose-built fabrication and service buildings replace the temporary setup — covered, weather-independent work capacity, which is the highest-return improvement a refit yard can make because it removes weather from the revenue equation.
  • Vendor bays incorporated into the shop build so the preferred-vendor program has permanent homes generating rent and revenue share.
Stage 3 · Years 2–4 · The road and the offload facility

Become the front door for every vessel trucked into the Keys

This is the differentiator that does not exist anywhere else in the island chain. Vessels arrive in the Florida Keys on trucks — down a single highway, to a place with no proper facility built to receive them. Today that offload is improvised. We intend to build the facility that makes it routine.

  • A proper road engineered into and through the yard, built to carry loaded transport rigs rather than patched for pickup traffic.
  • A dedicated turning and staging area sized for tractor-trailers carrying large vessels — the specific constraint that makes most sites impossible for this work.
  • A state-of-the-art offload and launch interface tying the road directly to the lift, so a vessel goes from trailer to water, or trailer to blocking, in one controlled operation.
  • Strategic value: capturing the vessel at the moment it enters the Keys market. Whoever offloads the boat gets first position on the commissioning, the service, the storage, and the dockage that follow. It converts a one-time logistics fee into the top of our customer funnel.
Stage 4 · Years 3–6 · Fuel

Put fuel storage on the property, using a supply chain that already runs here

The Keys Energy Services Stock Island Generating Facility sits next door and operates seven oil-fired units — four combustion turbine, two medium-speed diesel, one high-speed diesel. That plant is supplied by an established fuel delivery chain into Stock Island. The logistics problem that makes marine fuel hard and expensive in the Keys — getting volume fuel to the island reliably — is already solved on the adjacent parcel.

  • On-site fuel storage sized to the yard's own operation and to marine retail sales, delivered through the same channel that already serves the generating station.
  • Marine fueling becomes a high-frequency revenue line and a powerful traffic driver — fuel brings vessels to the dock, and the dock sells everything else.
  • Operational self-reliance, including fuel for equipment and for storm-response operations when the rest of the chain is disrupted — which is exactly when fuel is worth the most.
Gate. Fuel storage is the most heavily regulated item in this plan — FDEP, EPA SPCC, fire code, tank permitting, spill containment, and insurance all sit in front of it. It is deliberately placed in Stage 4, after the operation has cash flow and a compliance track record, and it requires its own feasibility study before a dollar is committed.
Stage 5 · Years 4–8 · Heavy capability

Step up to a ~500-ton lift — sized to the market and the footprint, not the brochure

The existing lift makes the yard viable. A heavy lift makes it regionally singular. But the correct question is not "how big can we go" — it is what capacity actually converts our acreage into revenue. Those are different numbers, and getting it wrong strands seven figures of capital in a machine that serves a handful of boats.

Reading the equipment correctly

Marine Travelift publishes two families. The BFMII series spans 25–100 metric tons and handles vessels roughly 25–100 ft. The C-series spans 150–1,500 metric tons and handles vessels roughly 130–328 ft. That 130–328 ft figure describes the entire C-series spread — the 150-ton machine at the bottom and the 1,500-ton machine at the top — not the range of any single unit.

Because displacement scales with the cube of length, the capacity-to-length curve is brutally flat in the middle of that series:

MachineApprox. max vessel lengthPractical read
C-series, 150 ton~130 ftEntry of the heavy class
C-series, ~500 ton~190 ftCovers the entire realistic Key West fleet
C-series, 600 ton~205 ftRoughly 15 more feet of vessel for materially more money
C-series, 1,500 ton~328 ftSuperyacht/commercial-shipyard class

Lengths interpolated across Marine Travelift's published C-series envelope (150–1,500 t ≈ 130–328 ft) on a displacement-to-length basis; confirm against manufacturer sizing for any specific hull before purchase.

Why 600 tons is the wrong buy

The step from 500 to 600 tons buys roughly fifteen feet of vessel length. It does not open a new market segment; it adds cost, weight, wheel loading, and pier requirement for a marginal gain. And the vessels that genuinely need 600+ tons — 200 ft and up — cannot be monetized on this property in any number. Run the footprint math:

Fleet mix on the same hardstandVessels that fitRevenue per haul cycleMonthly storage
300 ft+ class (≈0.6 acre each + lanes)4–6≈ $82,000≈ $41,000
90–120 ft class (≈0.08 acre each + lanes)40–55≈ $225,000≈ $112,500

Illustrative, using the published rate card ($50/ft haul, $25/ft/mo storage) against a ~10-acre usable hardstand assumption with lift lanes and access allowances. Hardstand acreage is an August 10 survey item.

The mid-size fleet produces roughly 2.7× the revenue on identical ground — and does it across forty-plus customers instead of five, which is a materially more durable book of business. A yard full of 300-footers is a prestige photograph. A yard full of 90–120 ft boats is a business.

What ~500 tons actually buys

  • The whole addressable band. From the small end straight through to roughly 190 ft, covering the sportfish, motoryacht, sail, and charter fleet that actually populates the lower Keys.
  • Heavy short vessels — the tonnage case. Capacity is about weight, not just length. Key West's commercial fleet — steel shrimpers, tugs, pilot boats, workboats — is short and heavy, and routinely exceeds what a light-duty lift can take. Marine Travelift markets the 400C specifically for "short, heavy workboats to megayachts." That fleet is based here, works here, and currently leaves the Keys for service.
  • Alignment with the industry's own move. The Florida yard cited in trade coverage expanded to 485 tons — not 600, not 1,500. That is the market telling us where the demand actually sits.
The open question for August 10 — and it decides this whole stage. We do not yet know the existing lift's rated capacity. The published rate card runs to "85 ft and up," which implies real capability, but implication is not a spec plate. The survey must record make, model, rated tonnage, sling configuration, and certification status. That single data point determines the size of the gap — and therefore whether the right move is one ~500-ton machine, or a smaller mid-tier unit first that fills the band immediately above the existing lift at a fraction of the cost. We size the purchase to the measured gap, not to the catalogue.

Sequencing note. Any heavy lift requires the earlier stages first — lift pier structure, hardstand bearing capacity, the road, and the turning area all have to exist before a machine of this class is useful. That is why it is Stage 5 and not Stage 1.

Throughout · Years 1–10 · The commercial layer

What runs in parallel with the construction

  • Government and institutional work. Convert SAM/CAGE registration into real contract vehicles: Navy and Coast Guard vessel support, county and state emergency staging agreements, FEMA-adjacent subcontracts. A cleared, gated, 25-acre deep-water site at the end of US-1 is genuinely strategic staging ground.
  • Certified fabrication as the moat. Class-approved structural work (ABS, Lloyd's, RINA) that no other lower-Keys shop can perform — the capability that makes us a yard rather than a parking lot.
  • Storm-season contracts sold ahead as recurring revenue.
  • The product line. APB-manufactured dock furniture, fish stations, and custom fabrication; Robbie's becomes the Keys showroom and installation point.
  • Own where possible. Exercise the right of first offer/refusal if the landlord elects to sell. A lease is the efficient way to start and a weak way to finish.
  • Foreign-Trade Zone evaluation — pursued deliberately and slowly; see the correction below.
Correction to earlier drafts — FTZ. Prior versions of this plan treated Foreign-Trade Zone status as a near-term lever. Research does not support that. Monroe County, Florida does not hold its own FTZ grant (FTZ #141 belongs to Monroe County, New York — a naming collision that appears in casual sources). The nearest Florida zone is FTZ 281, Miami-Dade. An FTZ at Stock Island would require either a usage-driven site or subzone under an existing grantee, or a new zone application to the Foreign-Trade Zones Board — a multi-year, federal, board-level process with real cost. It is a legitimate long-horizon objective for a refit yard importing foreign parts and serving foreign-flag vessels, and it is not a year-one revenue lever. We would rather correct this now than defend it in diligence.
Years 6–10 · Scale

Convert the finished facility into a platform

  • The yard becomes the anchor, not the endpoint. With a proven operating platform, built systems, and a certified crew, the model is portable to additional distressed or underused working waterfront in the Keys and along both Florida coasts.
  • Vertical integration. The exact strategy institutional buyers are executing — pairing waterfront with service capability — but built from the service side out, which is the harder half to buy.
  • Institutional optionality. A stabilized, professionally reported marine service platform with fuel, heavy haul-out, and a logistics function is precisely the asset Blackstone- and Suntex-scale capital is acquiring. Whether the outcome is a sale, a recapitalization, or continued private ownership, the position is deliberately built to be worth more to someone else than it cost to create.

The build-out at a glance

StageWindowPrincipal worksUnlocks
1 · ControlMo. 1–6Clear non-payers · gate & code box · temp offices · vendor list · unified billingCapacity + accountability
2 · Water & shopsMo. 6–18Seawall repair · remove sunken dry dock · finger piers · permanent shopsDockage + weatherproof work
3 · Road & offloadYr 2–4Engineered road · truck turning/staging · offload & launch interfaceTrucked-vessel logistics
4 · FuelYr 3–6Fuel storage & dispensing (regulatory-gated)Fuel revenue + traffic
5 · Heavy liftYr 4–8~500-ton travel lift (sized to the measured gap) + supporting pier & hardstandVessels to ~190 ft + heavy commercial

Stage windows are sequencing targets, not commitments. Each stage is gated on the prior stage's cash flow, on permitting, and on the survey and engineering work specific to it. Capital for Stages 2–5 is expected to come from operations, project financing, and landlord infrastructure obligations under the lease — not from the activation budget in Section 09.

Ten-year objective: APB South is the dominant marine service operation in the lower Keys — gated, organized, fueled, with heavy haul-out capability and the only proper truck-offload facility in the island chain — generating durable eight-figure revenue, with ownership or ownership rights over its own waterfront.

SECTION 12The 50–100 year thesis

Most business plans stop at ten years because most businesses are not built on irreplaceable land. This one is. The half-century case rests on two facts moving in opposite directions — and a third that turns the risk into the opportunity.

12.1 — Working waterfront is a permanently shrinking asset

No new marine industrial waterfront is being created in the Florida Keys. The combination required — water depth, channel access, industrial zoning, upland acreage, and permits — is effectively unobtainable today, and every decade converts more of the remaining stock to residential, resort, and tourism use. The direction of travel over the last thirty years has been one way. Over fifty years, the working waterfront that survives will be a small fraction of what exists now, and whoever holds it will hold something that cannot be competed with, only bought.

12.2 — The water is rising, and the numbers are not ambiguous

Any honest hundred-year plan for the Florida Keys has to start here. Projections from the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact indicate roughly 12 inches of sea level rise by 2030 and more than 30 inches by 2060. Monroe County's own vulnerability work is starker still:

HorizonRoadways affectedHousing units affected
By 204549%
By 206066%82%
By 210081%92%

Under high-end 2100 scenarios, 2.7 feet of rise affects roughly 55% of the population and 5.4 feet affects roughly 83%. The preliminary estimate to elevate roads in just two pilot communities is $1.8 billion. We are not going to pretend this is someone else's problem. It is the defining physical fact of the next century in Monroe County.

12.3 — Why a boatyard is the right thing to own into that century

Here is the asymmetry, and it is the heart of the long thesis. Sea level rise is catastrophic for housing, roads, and land-dependent commerce. For marine infrastructure it is something closer to the opposite:

12.4 — What the fifty-to-hundred-year plan actually commits to

Decades 1–2 · through ~2045

Establish permanence

Convert operating control into ownership. Elevate and armor incrementally with every capital cycle — every repaving, every seawall repair, every new slab is built to a higher target elevation than the code requires. Build the adaptation into routine maintenance rather than treating it as a future project.

Decades 2–5 · ~2045–2075

Become infrastructure

As surrounding land use degrades and competitors exit, deepen the institutional position: government logistics, emergency staging, marine supply, and the service capability the lower Keys cannot function without. Consolidate adjacent working waterfront as it becomes available — and it will become available, because the operators who did not adapt will sell.

Decades 5–10 · ~2075–2125

Hold the last of it

The objective at a hundred years is not a bigger boatyard. It is to be the entity that still owns operational deep-water industrial waterfront in the lower Florida Keys when almost none remains — held through a structure (family ownership, trust, or long-dated partnership) built to survive generational transfer rather than a five-year exit window.

The hundred-year statement: we are not buying a boatyard's cash flow. We are taking a position in the last working deep-water waterfront at the end of the United States, in a place where they cannot make more of it, and where the physical forces that destroy every other land use happen to increase demand for ours.
Intellectual honesty. A hundred-year plan is a thesis, not a projection. Sea level rise could accelerate past adaptive capacity; insurance and reinsurance markets could withdraw from Monroe County entirely and take the vessel population with them; state or federal policy could restrict rebuilding. Those are genuine tail risks and this plan does not price them away. What it argues is narrower and defensible: if anything on these islands is still economically viable in a hundred years, deep-water working waterfront with upland staging is on the short list — and it is available now, on a lease, for a fraction of what it will ever be worth again.

SECTION 13Risk register

RiskRealityMitigation
Derelict vessels & titleMultiple vessels and barges with unclear ownership. Removal is a legal process, not a crane jobDay-1 documentation; FWC/Monroe County derelict process; revenue runs around them meanwhile
Environmental / pre-existingOld working yard; unknowns in soil and basin; a sunken vesselBaseline assessment before commitment; landlord retains pre-existing conditions in the lease; compliant washdown from day one
Travel lift conditionMechanical state unverified — the largest single cost unknownInspection and load test in week one; $150–350K range held; rental/mobile haul fallback priced
HurricaneIt is the Keys. A storm can hit the yard itselfLandlord insures fixed infrastructure, APB insures operations; storm plan is also a revenue product
Permits & county processMonroe County moves slowly; submerged-land and use questions take timeOperate existing permitted uses first; sequence expansions behind counsel-led diligence
Execution capacityAPB is running Fort Lauderdale while standing this upDedicated APB South lead on site; operating systems built before day one
Agreement not signedThe lease is drafted, in counsel review, unexecutedNo activation capital is deployed before signature and diligence-gate satisfaction
Insurance market withdrawalMonroe County carriers repricing or exiting affects vessel populationDiversify toward commercial, government, and transient work; haul-out capability is itself an insurance mitigant
Institutional competitor entrySafe Harbor or Suntex could acquire a Keys positionSpeed and the lease. There is no comparable site left in Key West to acquire — that is the moat
No marina terms existThe operator publishes no storage agreement, lien language, abandoned-vessel provisions, customer insurance requirement, or vessel-in-custody liability position — their "terms of service" is website boilerplate. Customer agreements may be thin or handshake-basedDay-one legal work. Draft a real storage and haul-out agreement, insurance requirement, liability position, and vendor access terms with Florida marine counsel; get existing customers signed onto them during the first 30 days. Audit what agreements actually exist during diligence — this directly gates the non-payer clearance below
Clearing non-paying vesselsRemoving long-tenured boats creates disputes, bad feeling locally, and occasional litigation — and is materially harder without signed storage agreements (see above)Every removal runs a documented process — notice, contract, lien, or state derelict procedure. Fair warning and a paid option offered first; counsel reviews the template before the first notice goes out
Fuel storage regulatory loadTank permitting, FDEP/EPA SPCC, fire code, spill containment and insurance are a serious barrierDeliberately staged to Year 3+, behind cash flow and a compliance record; its own feasibility study gates any commitment
Build-out capital & sequencingStages 2–5 need capital well beyond the activation budgetEach stage is gated on the prior stage's cash flow, project financing, and landlord infrastructure obligations. No stage is a prerequisite for the yard being profitable

SECTION 14The ask

Three things stand between this plan and a working yard.

  1. Execute the operating agreement. Drafted and in counsel review. It needs legal time and signatures, not more meetings.
  2. Commit activation capital of $1.5–2.0 million, staged against milestones. This is equipment, cleanup, insurance, crew, and working capital — not construction, and not land.
  3. Execute the August 10 survey. Full vessel census, lift inspection, seawall and utility condition. This converts every estimate in this document into a measured, committed number.
What the capital buys: a running boatyard in the only Florida market with no competing yard, on infrastructure that is already built and contributed under a 30-year lease, charging rates the market already pays at that address, operated by a shop that has done this work for 29 years — in an asset class where the largest infrastructure investor in the world just paid $5.65 billion for the same thesis at scale.

Every claim in this document is checkable. The claims that are not yet verified say so on their face, and one claim from an earlier draft has been corrected against research rather than defended. That is how we intend to run the yard, and how we intend to report on it.

SECTION 15Sources & references

Market data in Section 03, financial benchmarks in Section 08, and climate projections in Section 12 are drawn from the following. Rate-card figures are the operating yard's own published pricing; Key West dockage comps are market observations as of July 2026.

  1. Blackstone Infrastructure / Safe Harbor Marinas $5.65B acquisition — Boating Industry; Marina World, "Why are marinas attracting institutional investors?"
  2. Suntex / Centerbridge $1.2B JV, Windward merger — Suntex Marinas; Marina Deal Flow, Top Acquirers 2025–2026
  3. Slip supply ratio, dockage cost pressure, consolidation effects — Seaport RE, "What Makes a Marina a Strong Commercial Investment in 2026?"
  4. Superyacht refit capacity crisis; yard expansion to 485-ton haul capability — International Boat Industry; Marina World, "Navigating investments in boatyard and repair facilities"
  5. Marina financial benchmarks — revenue/slip, $/ft/yr, occupancy, margins, cap rates, EBITDA multiples — Marina Deal Flow FAQ; DealStream, Marina Rules of Thumb; CT Acquisitions, marina valuation guide
  6. Stock Island Marina Village — 220 slips, vessels to 300' — Weiler Engineering project record
  7. Hilton Key West Resort & Marina, opened July 1 2026 — 175 rooms, 20 acres, 111 slips to 140' — Marina World
  8. Monroe County marine resources, Boating Improvement Fund (~$650K/yr), navigation infrastructure — Monroe County Marine Resources
  9. Sea level rise projections and roadway/housing vulnerability — Monroe County GreenKeys Sustainability Action Plan; The Nature Conservancy, "Can the Florida Keys Adapt to Sea-Level Rise?"; WSP, Florida Keys Resilient Infrastructure Pilot
  10. Boatyard contractor restrictions, DIY prohibitions, and insurance thresholds (basis for the Section 04.1 open-yard position) — Power & Motoryacht, "The Impact of Environmental Laws on DIY Boat Owners"; Seminole Marine yard rules; Berkeley Marine Center DIY policies; Gig Harbor Marina & Boatyard policies
  11. Robbie's Marina of Key West — complete published price list, services, about, thrift store, guides, and haul request form, captured July 30 2026 — robbieskw.com (full capture retained in the admin Robbie's Baseline)
  12. Foreign-Trade Zone structure and Florida zone list (basis for the Section 11 correction) — U.S. Foreign-Trade Zones Board; FTZ 281, Miami-Dade County
All Points Boats · Fort Lauderdale, Florida · Confidential working draft, July 2026.
This document is a business plan draft prepared for discussion with principals and prospective capital partners. It is not an offering of securities, not an inducement to invest, and not legal, tax, environmental, or investment advice. Financial figures are planning estimates constructed from published rates and third-party industry benchmarks; they are not forecasts, guarantees, or audited results, and they exclude the landlord profit participation to be fixed in the operating agreement. Property condition, vessel counts, and equipment status are unverified pending the August 2026 site survey. The operating lease referenced throughout is an unexecuted draft under counsel review. Any transaction remains subject to legal, environmental, title, insurance, and financial diligence.